FlowPoint Partners Blog

Executive Summary: Market participants have bemoaned stocks as levitating in a “bubble” for three years, though we’re now seeing evidence of an equity mania in selected areasAlarming parallels to the 1998-2000 timeframe, especially in the electric vehicle space, which...

People still think this is a frothy market.  It is frothy – but in isolated pockets, which is an important distinction, and we’ll get to those examples in a moment.  But let’s not forget where we once were. This is the 20th anniversary year of the Pets.com...

Comparisons of 2020 to prior times in U.S. history are rightfully making the rounds. Market participants are always looking for analogs. Niall Ferguson’s piece today has an interesting compare to 1968 here. And today’s WSJ has a terrific piece on a compare to the...

This Tweet by Bill Fleckenstein is worthy of comment because Mr. Fleckenstein is thoughtful and successful and he has earned our attention. The sentiment he expresses here is obviously not new and not just his.  Indeed, our Twitter feed is swamped by almost...

For those of us that run asset allocation strategies, being in the right place at the right time is, obviously, everything.  Indeed, a foundation of risk parity strategies is that asset class performance stays within historical bands.  Divergences from historical...

A trusted friend noted to us the other day the market is acting like the economy ran straight into a brick wall with no skid marks.  His point, while funny, is well taken.  Something is amiss as the data is in serious conflict.  The economic backdrop is still quite...

In the recent October swoon, small cap as a sector sold off more than mid and large-cap.  The Russell 2000 Growth index peaked on August 31st and for the months of September and October was down 14.7%.  Naturally, the question on everyone’s mind is:...

We are at the point in the calendar when the “mid-year market overviews” start to appear, fast and furiously.  The theme this year has been how dominant FAANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google) have been in S&P 500 returns...

Our posting has been sporadic lately as new business initiatives have kept us away from the keyboard. Distractions we will happily endure, so no complaints. But, in our four months away, we’ve found that . . .absolutely nothing has changed in the markets. Everywhere...

Over a year has passed since the election of Donald Trump. It’s been a fascinating period in political circles and, according to CNBC, in investing markets. But has the market really been that interesting? Profitable, no doubt, but from a price action standpoint,...

Our friend and partner Charles Trafton of FlowPoint Capital recently pointed out to us some very interesting data: right now growth rates for 2017 EPS are higher for value stocks than growth stocks. He also notes, ironically, that there is no manual for this. He’s...

This week, Paul Ryan held a press conference to highlight tax reform initiatives. It didn’t get nearly the attention it deserved. But then, tax policy in general rarely gets the attention it deserves (more on that later). You know what also never gets enough...

We write a lot about return dispersion with respect to stocks – the phenomenon whereby stocks either all move together, or begin to act distinctly. Dispersion comes and goes; when it disappears, like it did eight years ago, passive investing makes a great deal of...

In the past few weeks, we have teased a few thoughts on the issues we see in ETF’s. This week, we’re going to start a series called “The Problems in Your ETF.” Today’s post centers again on the levered ETF’s. Many (negative) market commentators point to Central Bank...

Should we be worried about CAPE, the popular Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings ratio? Experts tell us it is trading at exceedingly high levels and, the experts also say, those high levels portend poor stock returns, according to CAPE. We’ve thought about that...

In any general discussion of investment strategies on TV or in the press, the focus quickly and often turns to correlations, standard deviations, Sharpe and Sortino ratios, etc. What’s not discussed enough is “when.” As in, when you get in or out makes all the...

Last week, amid some controversy, the SEC approved a 4x levered ETF. For a period of time, and rightly, the SEC was considering cracking down on the 2x and 3x levered vehicles so the move to 4x was surprising. Don’t misunderstand, the levered ETF’s offer gigantic...

Last week, in a post about current equity market valuations, we identified the unwinding of QE as a possible threat to today’s bull market. Let us be clear: we don’t think the unwinding of QE (which has already begun, actually) will have any material impact on stock...

Back in January of this year (seems so long ago. . .), headlines in the Canadian financial press were bemoaning the fact that (1) the Canadian economy was growing at its slowest pace in 60 years, and (2) real estate and financial services now account for 20 percent of...

Last week Consumer Lenders started reporting Q1 2017 earnings, which showed above average loan growth and better margins. But, in spite of the improving revenue trends, a surge in credit costs hurt results and stocks in the space sold off hard. It was Déjà vu for...

Not surprisingly, the question most frequently posed by our shareholders, investors and other stakeholders concerns the relative valuation of equity markets. U.S. indexes set new all-time price highs recently and references to the late 90’s are starting to pop up with...

So we are about halfway through Q1 2017 earnings, and the results are predictably mixed.  Our friends at FlowPoint Capital have alerted us to some pretty interesting data that is starting to show up in their proprietary risk screens, namely that the market is...

Our friend John Roque, one of Wall Street’s great technicians, often talks to us about the importance of visual affirmation.  Let pictures talk.  He is speaking of the importance of perspective in analysis and not losing sight of it. The bond market has been...